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From: Skeeve picks
Sent: Saturday, October 21, 2017 10:30 AM
 
National League: Leyton Orient - MACCLESFIELD  (min. odds: 2.60) 0.5 point
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/vanarama-national-league/leyton-orient-macclesfield-Wlv6W727/

Leyton Orient are currently 17th, they have the third worst defence (as many as 26 goals conceded in fifteen National League games so far) and the fourth worst home defence in the league (as many as ten goals conceded in seven home games so far), they're without a single win in as many as seven league games, five of which were defeats, they've conceded as many as fifteen and scored only seven goals during this seven-game winless run, they've now lost three consecutive home games in the National League (0:3 to Halifax, 1:2 to Hartlepool, 1:2 to Fylde) and they're still favorites against league leaders Macclesfield - that's some strange odds compiling indeed. Leyton have actually started the season well, with five wins in eight games, but then lost both of their first-choice centre-backs (Coulson and Elokobi) to injuries in their ninth game of the season and haven't won a single league game since - after both Coulson and Elokobi picked up their respective injuries, as many as five defenders played in their central defence - Sendles-White, Clark, Happe, Ellis and left-back Widdowson. After they've lost five of their six games (0:2 at Boreham Wood, 0:3 to Halifax, 1:2 to Hartlepool, 2:2 at Aldershot, 1:2 to Fylde, 1:2 at Tranmere), they've switched to a five-man defence and shared points in a 2:2 draw away at Barrow, after which they've finally kept a couple of clean sheets, but only in the FA Cup 4th qualifying round, where they first managed to grind out a goalless draw away at Dagenham before beating them 1:0 at home on Tuesday. They did have their chances in both games (and obviously scored the tie-deciding goal), but so did Dagenham who would've scored at least a couple of goals on some other days. With first-choice centre-backs Coulson and Elokobi and midfielder/skipper Lee all still out injured and another first-choice midfielder Lawless doubtful (he's missed the FA Cup replay as he was suspended for accumulating five yellow cards, but he's now an injury doubt due to a groin problem), we could see the same team that's finally managed to win a game of football, albeit an FA Cup 4th qualifying round one, so Grainger between the sticks, Clark, Happe and left-back Widdowson in their three-man central defence, Caprice and Judd as wing-backs, Clay in front of the back three and Boco and Dayton behind strikers Mooney and Bonne - I can see cup-tied Ellis or Sendles-White taking Clark's spot in central defence, cup-tied Brophy back at left wing-back instead of Judd, Lawless (if he's fit) along with Clay in central midfield (which would see one of the two more attacking midfielders - Boco and Dayton - demoted to the subs' bench) or McAnuff (he's missed the last couple of games due to an injury) back behind the strikers instead of either Boco or Dayton, but that's about it as far as possible changes are concerned - that's obviously still a good team, but I don't think they should be favorites against Macclesfield at this moment in time.

Macclesfield are currently at the top of the league table, they've now won four consecutive National League games and five consecutive games in both competitions (1:0 at Torquay, 2:0 vs Aldershot, 2:1 at Guiseley, 1:0 vs Ebbsfleet and, finally, 5:0 at Stourbridge in the FA Cup last Saturday, which means they didn't have to play an FA Cup replay on Tuesday like Leyton Orient did), they've also won five consecutive away games (2:0 at Chester, 1:0 at Solihull, 1:0 at Torquay, 2:1 at Guiseley, 5:0 at Stourbridge in the FA Cup) and only conceded one goal in the process, they've lost their last away game back in mid-August when they were missing their first-choice keeper Jalal, first-choice right-back Hodgkiss, first-choice centre-back Pilkington, both first-choice wingers Durrell and Hancox and first-choice attacking midfielder Lloyd who are now all fit and available (not to mention that they've re-signed key midfielder Whitehead in the meantime as well), gave plenty of first-choice players a well deserved rest last weekend at Stourbridge and, if you ask me, their expected line-up (Jalal between the sticks; Hodgkiss, Lowe, Pilkington and Fitzpatrick at the back; Whitaker and Whitehead in the middle of the park; Durrell and Hancox/Arthur on the flanks; Lloyd behind Wilson up front; with the likes of defender Kennedy, midfielder Burgess and striker Marsh on the bench) shouldn't be outsiders away at Leyton Orient at this moment in time - they're the second best away team in the league (Dover have picked up two points more than them on the road so far, but they've played an away game more), all of their key players are in excellent form at the moment, their defence looks great since first-choice right-back Hodgkiss and first-choice centre-back Pilkington returned to the starting line-up (which coincided with their five-game winning run, during which they've only conceded one and scored as many as eleven goals) and they've won all of their five games against bottom-eight teams so far (2:0 at Chester, 1:0 at Solihull, 2:1 vs Fylde, 1:0 at Torquay, 2:1 at Guiseley). It could be quite windy (to say the least), but it will obviously be windy for both teams. All things considered, anything better than 2.60 for the away win looks great to me.

pre-mail odds:

3.25 with Bet365...
3.23 with 5Dimes...
3.20 with BetVictor, Will Hill...
3.15 with Pinnacle, 188bet...
3.13 with Marathon...
3.10 with Bwin, Coral, Ladbrokes...
3.05 with SBO...
 
recorded odds:
 
2.99 with Pinnacle